Us Foreign Policy in the Age of Trump: Drivers, Strategy and Tactics by Reuben Steff

Author:Reuben Steff [Steff, Reuben]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: International Relations, General, United States, Political Science, Political Freedom, History, 21st Century, Security (National & International)
ISBN: 9780367557218
Google: pEX1DwAAQBAJ
Goodreads: 58081096
Publisher: Routledge
Published: 2020-09-27T17:16:51+00:00

Conclusion

This chapter has examined key components of the Trump administration’s tactics. Evidence suggests that Trump, being a political and foreign policy outsider, has adopted tactics that suit his temperament and preferences and has drawn upon the negotiation skills he acquired from his pre-political career as a businessman. It made the case that Trump employs very high opening bids reflecting ‘super aggressive expectations’ that act as anchor positions, and a mixture of threats alongside promises of rewards. His threats to withdraw from multiple existing arrangements would, if enacted, likely damage US interests substantially. Yet, the threat to do so, which must be made plausible if US negotiating partners or rogue regimes are to take the US seriously, is given credibility owing to Trump’s behavior elsewhere. For example, Trump’s withdrawal from the TPP and the Paris Agreement likely contributed to concerns in Mexico and Canada that the president’s threat to abandon NAFTA was believable (spurring them to negotiate the USMCA), and also elevated concerns in NATO that he would remove the US from the alliance, increasing their incentives to enhance their contributions to the coalition. Trump’s penchant to act unpredictably and seemingly irrationally – a tactic he has explicitly endorsed – means US negotiation partners cannot dismiss the ‘Trump risk’; the president’s behavior and rhetoric fits both his preferred negotiation style and his efforts to project an image of instability.

When we consider Trump’s capricious behavior through the levels of analysis approach, the first level – Trump as an individual political actor – is illuminating. It accords not just with the Trump Doctrine outlined by senior officials but with Michael Pocalyko’s contention that Trump’s business education ensures he is comfortable operating amidst disruption and unpredictability (Pocalyko, 2017). Thus, to Trump, any disruption and favorable change of policy by US friends and adversaries merely “underscore core elements of his own policies” (Ibid., 53). However, President Nixon also consciously portrayed himself as a ‘madman’ to increase US leverage. As the next chapter explains, Nixon’s presidential tenure took place during a period when the US faced immense international challenges and the emergence of a multipolar system – an international situation not unlike that facing Trump.

Trump clearly believes his pre-presidential approach is a model for success in the foreign policy domain. Has he been successful? The outcomes related to each of the four issues examined in this chapter suggest mixed results so far. On China a new Phase I deal was reached that addressed relatively ‘low hanging fruit’ and a framework for US–China trade negotiations now exists. However, securing a Phase II deal is expected to be extremely difficult and it is an open question whether the economic pain to the US (and global economy) from the trade war will ultimately be worth it. NAFTA was successfully renegotiated, leading to the USMCA (viewed by many as NAFTA-lite) that will provide small, albeit positive, gains for the US economy. Since Trump’s inauguration, some of America’s European NATO allies have increased their spending, which may be attributable to Trump’s

Download

Copyright Disclaimer:
This site does not store any files on its server. We only index and link to content provided by other sites. Please contact the content providers to delete copyright contents if any and email us, we'll remove relevant links or contents immediately.